Rudd, who was twice Australia’s prime minister in the previous decade, spoke in Honolulu on Thursday, suggesting that if Chinese President Xi Jinping, who turns 71 this month, seeks "final national unification" with Taiwan, he would likely act within the next decade, before reaching his 80s.
"We would be foolish to ignore the increasing clarity of China’s military signalling, including the pattern of its most recent military exercises," Rudd said. He added that whether China acts will depend on its perception of the strength of U.S. deterrence.
China claims Taiwan, a democratically governed island, as its own territory and has not renounced the use of force to bring it under control. Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims, asserting that only its people can decide their future.
The United States has expressed concern over Chinese military activities near Taiwan, particularly following the island’s presidential election and the recent inauguration of President Lai Ching-te. China has cautioned the U.S. against interfering in its affairs with Taiwan.
Despite the lack of official diplomatic relations, the U.S. recognizes Beijing but is legally bound to help Taiwan defend itself, making it Taiwan’s most crucial international supporter.
Rudd noted that a successful Chinese annexation of Taiwan would affect U.S. credibility and potentially alter the perceived reliability of U.S. alliances globally.
The U.S., China, and Taiwan share a common interest in avoiding open military conflict over Taiwan’s future, said Rudd, a China scholar and former president of the Asia Society in New York.
"The economic costs, domestic political impacts, and unforeseeable geo-strategic consequences of such a war would likely be unparalleled since the Second World War," he said.
"Regardless of the outcome (an American victory, a Chinese victory, or a bloody stalemate), the world is likely to be drastically different after such a conflict."